Year 2023, Issue 149

Date published

20.10.2023

Table of content

  • Krasimir Kulchev
    ASSESSMENT OF THE INSOLVENCY RISK OF ENTERPRISES
    JEL: Ñ53
    Keywords: insolvency risk, analytical models, financial analysis, discri¬minant analysis
    Summary: models for assessing the insolvency risk of enterprises are an effective way of forecasting a financial position, therefore, they should not be directly excluded from the analytical tools used in Bulgaria. At the same time, these models, developed in socio-economic conditions that differ from the Bulgarian ones, suggest that th ... ... Foreign models for assessing the insolvency risk of enterprises are an effective way of forecasting a financial position, therefore, they should not be directly excluded from the analytical tools used in Bulgaria. At the same time, these models, developed in socio-economic conditions that differ from the Bulgarian ones, suggest that they should not be immediately applied without a thorough and targeted study. Such studies contribute to the application of foreign analytical models with relatively high predictive capabilities in their original form, as well as the adaptation of empirical equations with lower predictive capabilities to a specific business environment, and the construction of new models. In this way, the theory of financial analysis is enriched and favourable conditions for increasing the degree of certainty are created when assessing the insolvency risk of enterprises in practice. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 9 SECTION ONE THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE ASSESSMENT OF INSOLVENCY RISK OF ENTERPRISES 15 CHAPTER I INSOLVENCY RISK AS AN OBJECT OF ANALYTICAL RESEARCH 15 1.1. Logical basis of the insolvency risk assessment of enterprises 16 1.2. Macroeconomic dimensions of the insolvency risk 26 1.3. Main characteristics of the insolvency risk 40 CHAPTER II METHODOLOGICAL APPARATUS FOR ASSESSMENT OF INSOLVENCY RISK 58 2.1. Analytical approaches to assessing the insolvency risk 59 2.2. Selection of risk assessment analytical models 70 2.3. Key components of analytical models 81 SECTION TWO PRACTICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS OF THE INSOLVENCY RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENTERPRISES 96 CHAPTER III ASSESSMENT OF THE INSOLVENCY RISK 96 3.1. Provision of information and tools in assessing the insolvency risk 97 3.1.1. Provision of information in risk assessment 97 3.1.2. Risk assessment tools 102 3.2. Risk assessment of enterprises declared bankrupt 108 3.3. Risk assessment of financially stable enterprises 120 CHAPTER IV IMPROVEMENT OF THE ANALYTICAL MODELS FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE INSOLVENCY RISK 130 4.1. Determining the prognostic capabilities of analytical models 131 4.2. Adapting the analytical models 138 4.2.1. Correcting the limit value of an integral indicator 138 4.2.2. Modifying an analytical model by changing the weighting coefficients 142 4.3. Creating analytical models 146 4.3.1. Model building – phase I 146 4.3.2. Model building – phase II 150 CONCLUSION 160 REFERENCES 166 APPENDICES 169