-
Ivan Todorov, Alexander Alexandrov, Kalina L. Durova
FUTURE EURO AREA MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA IN TERMS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Summary:
In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria’s economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated to support the synchronization of Bulgaria’s economic cycle with the one of the EA and to prepare our country for the adoption of the euro.
-
Violeta Blazheva
The Bulgarian Agrarian Sector in the Context
of the “Updated” Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union
Summary:
The political agreement reached between the European Parliament, the Council of Ministers of the European Union and the European Commission is expected to lead to significant changes that mark the starting point of the European policy designed to address the challenges of the security of food supplies, climate change, growth and employment in rural regions. In this aspect, this paper focuses on the reform that is being carried out by CAP in 2013 in the context of the new pro¬gramming period 2014-2020. Priority is given to forthcoming changes in the Bulgarian agricultural sector regarding the implementation of the future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union. It has been proposed to group changes in CAP, which would facilitate the inclusion of the adjusted measures in designing agrarian policy in Bulgaria. The upcoming reform is aimed at achieving a more equitable distribution of resources. It is expected that each member state of the Com-munity should not receive less than 75% of the (average) funds provided by the European Union. The new rules will come into force from January 2014.
-
Radko Radkov, Andrey Zahariev
The Currency Board in Bulgaria: Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Results
Summary:
Via this article the authors would like to discuss the idea of the inter-section point of theoretical reflections and reported empirical results referring to the currency board in Bulgaria. To achieve the goal defined the article is structured in the following separate sections: first, clarification of the concept of a currency board in light of leading theoretical research; second, critical analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of the currency board in Bulgaria; third, justification of the authors’ answer regarding the end of the currency board in Bulgaria and its replacement with another system; fourth, econometric analysis and assessment of foreign trade sector influence on the GDP in Bulgaria under the conditions of a fixed currency exchange rate and a high percentage of foreign trade of goods and services in the structure of the GDP; fifth, a study of the currency boards influence on the economic convergence of Bulgaria in comparison with leading EU economies for the period 1998 – 2012. For the authors, Bulgaria’s path to membership in the Eurozone while keeping the currency board regime during the whole period of being in the ERM II “waiting room” is logical and has social and institutional support. The argument for this is that Estonia’s example of entering the Eurozone by preserving the currency rate at the level of the currency board is the reasonable and rational national project for developing Bulgaria’s economy and financial system.
-
Daniel Nikolaev
THE IMPACT OF COMMERCIAL BANKS ON CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Summary:
The paper traces the impact of the international, systematically important banks on the state and phenomena observed in the European Union. It comes to the conclusion that international commercial banks further strengthen the convergence in the banking systems of the member states. In the process of disclosure of these relationships, the macroeconomic factors in the European Union have also been analyzed affecting the returns from the main activity of banking institutions aggregated across member states. By sequential use of the regression model and optimization, values representing the local specificities of the individual member-state towards the Union have been reached. Links have been found that suggest a time lag in the effects observed since the crisis in 2008. Both the international banks and the stock market status in the individual member states indicate that international systematically important banks function as a conductor of extreme cross-border phenomena.
-
Daniela Ilieva, Dragomir Iliev
THE IMPACT OF CULTURAL HETEROGENEITY ON THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS
Summary:
After sixty years of integration, the idea of a united Europe has been put to the test. The purpose of this article is to put to discussion the degree of integration achievable between the member states. European Union integration which has been achieved so far is evaluated in the light of the three schools for regional integration: neoliberal models, the dirigiste school and structuralism. A new division of integration forms is proposed: technical and substantial integration. Technical integration is exogenous in nature and refers to the objects of integration, while substantial integration is endogenous and refers to the subjects of integration. The article focuses on cultural differences in the EU as a factor underlying substantial integration.
-
Yanko Hristozov
Does the Introduction of the Euro Lead to High Inflation? Myth or Fact?
Summary:
The replacement of the local currency with the Euro has led to a number of discussions, commentaries and arguments, most of which refer to issues related to an increase of the common levels of the prices of goods and services. The subject of the research comprises the countries which adopted the common European currency after the year 2007. Cyprus and Malta are not discussed due to pages limit. The purpose of the article is to discuss the facts related to the myths about high inflation after the adoption of the Euro and to ascertain whether this myth is significant or whether it can be refuted. In order to accomplish this, we must first study the experience of the newly joined Member States when the common currency was introduced; then we analyze the inflation rates and the changes in the years following their admission to the eurozone. The thesis that is to be proven or rejected is that the adoption of the Euro does not have significant impact on the prices of goods and services in the country that adopts the new currency, whereas if inflation processes are observed, their rates coincide with those of the preceding years.
-
Kalina L. Durova
THE IMPACT OF ABSORBED EUROPEAN FUNDS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF BULGARIA AND NEW MEMBER STATES
Summary:
The aim of this research is to analyze the short- and long-term relationship between the absorbed European funds and the economic growth in the 11 new member states as a group, and in Bulgaria in particular, during the period 2014–2020. To achieve the aim of the research, we have adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that, as public investments, the absorbed European funds have an impact on the economic growth of the 11 new member states in the short, but not in the long term. The relationship between the economic growth and the rate of absorption of European funds in Bulgaria indicates a short-term positive, but not long-term impact of the absorbed European funds on the rate of growth of the real GDP of our country.
-
Stoycho Dulevski
DIGITAL PERMANENT ESTABLISHMENT
Summary:
The permanent establishment (PE) has always been of interest in the field of international taxes in the taxation of profits of foreign enterprises in the source state. Over the years, the PE concept has undergone a number of changes. Their manifestation is reflected both from theoretical and practical perspective in connection with the variety of cases on this matter. Over the last years, the idea of digital PE has been subject of discussion both at worldwide and at European level. The current study analyzes the possibility of its introduction through the double tax treaties (DTTs) and the European Union law (EU law). In this regard, the measures undertaken in the legislation of different states are also examined
-
Velichka Nikolova
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY OF EU MEMBER STATES: A CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Summary:
The aim of this article is to perform a cluster analysis of the EU member states in terms of their public debt sustainability. To this end, the existing theoretical constructs related to the concept of debt sustainability were reviewed in to determine the advantages and disadvantages of certain indicators for assessing debt sustainability. In the course of the research, the methodological grounds of the analysis were defined and the countries were grouped into four clusters.
-
Borislav Emilov Boyanov
EUROPEAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY – CURRENT STATE AND CHALLENGES
Summary:
The European chemical industry is one of the major and most important industrial sectors of the Community economy. The present paper aims to present an analysis of its current state and, on this basis, to highlight the main challenges it must address in the coming years. The presentation of the main characteristics of the chemical industry on a global scale, which gives a clearer idea of the state of the industry as a whole also plays an important role in the study. The following main conclusions are drawn from the analysis made. First, an increase in the share of chemical substances and products in the EU’s total exports and imports, which determines the growing importance of the sector to the European Union. Second, the European chemical industry is still lagging behind China on a global scale due to a variety of reasons, including the country’s industrial policy and sector reforms. Third, in the future, the industry will have to cope with a number of challenges in areas such as the environment, international competitiveness, sustainable development and the circular economy.
-
Dimcho Ivelinov Shopov
ANALYSING AND FORECASTING THE DEBT BURDEN OF THE EU COUNTRIES: IS THERE A NEW EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS ON THE HORIZON?
Summary:
The debt crisis which afflicted Europe highlights the weaknesses and instability of the EU member states' financial systems, as well as the inability of their national economies to maintain normal levels of indebtedness. The deteriorating economic environment requires changes in the fiscal policies across Europe. These changes are effected using new financial instruments to raise the necessary funds for implementation of economic reforms in the EU member states. The aim of this study is to analyse the current levels of sovereign debt across the European Union and to forecast their development in the future using specialized econometric software. The results may be used to identify possible future economic shocks in Europe.
-
Nikolay Andreev
An Integrated Approach in the Study of the Evolution
of the Stabilisation Policy of the European Union
Summary:
Studying the evolution of European Union's stabilisation policy is a difficult task that requires certain focusing. In a broad sense, stabilisation policy can be defined as a set of measures taken by the government and implemented by certain bodies and mechanisms to overcome problems of the economy or to restore its equilibrium. Of course, processes ongoing at global, regional, and national levels in the economic system should also be taken into account in determining the instruments of the stabilisation policy. For the European Union in particular, the stabilisation instruments in its development are expressed in changes both in the strategic and in the structural and the institutional aspects and the evolution of the stabilisation policy can be characterized as distinct periods of development.
-
Kalina L. Durova
Cohesion Policy of the European Union: Evolution, Challenges
and Prospects
Summary:
The article analyzes the historical development of the Cohesion (Regional) Policy of the European Union and outlines the main challenges and perspectives facing it. Recommendations are formulated for its improvement in the future.
-
Vladislav Lyubenov
THE EUROZONE YIELD CURVE SHAPE DURING COVID19: A PROJECTION OF INVESTMENT AND MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
Summary:
The aim of this article is to provide a substantiated explanation of the shape of the yield curve in relation to the current theoretical reasoning and empirical data regarding the macroeconomic situation and the bond market. The object of research is the yield curve of government securities compounded from the average yields of AAA-rated government securities issued by euro area member states. The first part of the article presents the underlying literature and the theoretical foundations of the research hypotheses as well as the research methodology used. The second part addresses the spot and the forward yield curves in March 2021. The third part presents various empirical data and analyses the development of the bond market during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
-
Dimitar M. Ivanov
MACROECONOMIC CHALLENGES AND RISKS POSED BY THE GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
Summary:
The article presents an analysis of the current global eco¬nomic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The author’s objecttives were to define and discuss the characteristics of the current crisis and its external causes as well as the macroeconomic, financial, institutional and social imbalances in the period after the global financial crisis of 2008 that led to its outbreak. Using this analysis, the author is identifying some longer-term macroeconomic challenges and risks that would deepen and prolong the current crisis as on a global scale as well as in the economies of Europe and Bulgaria. The main thesis to which the author adheres is that although the contemporary crises that occurred in 1929, during the 70s, and in 2008 had typical common characteristics and provided us with valuable lessons to be learnt, each of those crises had its own character and features. Based on this thesis, the article draws attention to the essential critical problems of the global economy in addition to those caused by the coronavirus shock.
-
Atanas Vladikov
The EU Labour Market (as Viewed through the Prism of Elasticities)
Summary:
This paper discusses both theoretical paradigms and applications of labour market elasticities within the European Union of 28 member states. The paper is based onto a recent research (2014-2016), conducted by the author upon the effects on the EU-28 labour market, based on general models, explaining behaviour of elasticities of labour supply-demand sets of equilibriums. The paper employs the doctrine of employment-at-will, and therefore, the main theoretical framework for reasoning and explaining the effects on the EU labour market is an adapted Nash Bargaining Equilibrium on the labour market. Based on voluntary searching and matching of interests of employers and employees, the labour market is analyzed through the set of labour elasticities on micro- and macro-levels of the EU economy.
-
Horatiu Dan
Joining the Euro Zone – an Exploration of Real and Structural Convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia
Summary:
Twenty years after the creation of the Euro Zone, the monetary union remains the subject of both academic and political debate, often focusing on non-EZ Member States and their monetary integration aspirations (or lack thereof). In this context, one of the many hurdles in the way of Euro adoption lies in the incomplete character of the sine qua non conditions expressed in the Maastricht Treaty, which, although the only set of convergence conditions expressed in the European acquis, are univer¬sally deemed to be insufficient for successful EZ membership. Consequently, these nominal convergence conditions need to be doubled by less transparent real and structural convergence conditions. It is the objective of this paper to analyse some indicators pertaining to real and structural convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia by focusing on key aspects regarding (1) the capacity to catch up with EU’s PPS computed GDP per capita mean, (2) specialization, (3) business cycle synchronization and (4) current account structure. While recognizing that these four elements are not sufficient to ensure successful EZ membership, including them as inputs in the Euro adoption decision making process would have beneficial impact on its efficiency.
-
Yordan Neykov
Issues Facing the European Union – a SWOT Analysis
Summary:
The new realities facing the European Union at the beginning of the XXI century placed it in an unpredictable situation of crisis, geopolitical conflict and overindebtedness. These conditions slowed the pace of development and led in fact to the economic slowdown in the European Union - with modest GDP growth in 2013 and low inflation. The European Union has been facing a number of internal difficulties and many threats from the external environment. For this reason there is a need for analysis that takes into account both the internal state of the European Union and the external environment which was characterised by high complexity and dynamics in the period 2008 - 2014.
-
Dudar Volodimir
Development of the Market for Food Products from Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector
Summary:
The article analyses the development of markets for food products from the Ukraine agricultural sector and the degree of its dependence on imports of food products. The article also outlines the main areas for activating international economic activities and realization of export potential of Ukraine’s agricultural sector specializing in food production. The author advocates the necessity of deepening the processes of integration with main international markets of agricultural food products.
-
Tanya Gorcheva
Reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy and Benefits to Bulgaria
Summary:
The paper deals with issues related to the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (CAP) and the process of reforms the policy has been undergoing. It also provides a retrospective analysis in order to outline both favourable and adverse aspects of the impact which CAP has had on the development of the agricultural sector in Europe in general and in Bulgaria in particular. It is thus possible to highlight the benefits which our country could gain from those reforms by taking into consideration changes in existing regulations and the implementation of related policy instruments. The paper also reviews what was achieved in our country in the 2007-2013 programme period in result of implementing the CAP. Finally, it outlines expectations related to Bulgarian agriculture for the next programme period in terms of the changes introduced into that policy by the European Commission.
