Economic Archive

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  FISCAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE CHANGE IN THE SOCIAL SECURITY MODEL FOR CIVIL SERVANTS IN BULGARIA

  This study analyses the fiscal and distributional effects of the phased introduction of personal social insurance contributions for civil servants under the Civil Servants Act (CSA) and for employees under the Judiciary Act (JA). The main argument is that the regulatory change should not be assessed through the formal transfer of part of the ... This study analyses the fiscal and distributional effects of the phased introduction of personal social insurance contributions for civil servants under the Civil Servants Act (CSA) and for employees under the Judiciary Act (JA). The main argument is that the regulatory change should not be assessed through the formal transfer of part of the social insurance contribution to the employee, but rather through the actual economic incidence and the net effect on the consolidated public sector. When net income is preserved through an increase in gross remuneration, a gross-up effect on wages arises, which limits the immediate fiscal savings and changes the distribution of flows among the state budget, the State Social Insurance system, the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), universal pensions funds (UPF), and households. Three scenarios are considered: no compensation; full compensation of net income; and com¬pensation within a constrained personnel budget. The analysis shows that the first scenario produces the clearest direct budgetary effect, but through a reduction in employees’ disposable income, whereas under full compensation the reform is primarily of an institutional and distributional character. Over the medium term, the fiscal outcome depends on the rules governing remuneration indexation, staff numbers, the maximum insurable income, and the manner in which the technical compensation is incorporated into the future wage base.

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  MEASURING REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES: A NEW APPROACH THROUGH THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES INDEX AND THE REGIONAL DEFICIT COEFFICIENT

  This study proposes a new approach for measuring regional economic disparities using the Regional Deficit Coefficient (RDC), a measure based on the Regional Economic Opportunity Index (REOI) developed by the author and the National Economic Opportunity Index (NEOI). Unlike other existing indicators, the model measures the extent to which the ... This study proposes a new approach for measuring regional economic disparities using the Regional Deficit Coefficient (RDC), a measure based on the Regional Economic Opportunity Index (REOI) developed by the author and the National Economic Opportunity Index (NEOI). Unlike other existing indicators, the model measures the extent to which the regional environ¬ment creates or constrains the economic opportunities for realization of human capital. The REOI is calculated using the geometric mean of four components – income, employment, education, and healthcare – while the RDC measures the deviation of each region from the national level. The results show that the regional environment is closely linked to the economic opportunities available to the population. This suggests that even when people have similar levels of education, qualifications, and labor poten-tial, they may have different opportunities for professional development and human capital accumulation depending on the region in which they live and work.

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  FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF LEADING BANKING INSTITUTIONS USING THE EGARCH (1.1) MODEL

  This study focuses on the analysis and forecasting of stock price volatility among leading banking institutions using the EGARCH (1,1) model. In a dynamic and often volatile financial environment, the accurate modeling of market risk is of critical importance to both investors and financial institution management. The EGARCH model is particularly ... This study focuses on the analysis and forecasting of stock price volatility among leading banking institutions using the EGARCH (1,1) model. In a dynamic and often volatile financial environment, the accurate modeling of market risk is of critical importance to both investors and financial institution management. The EGARCH model is particularly suitable for capturing asymmetric effects in volatility, whereby negative market shocks ex¬ert a stronger impact on volatility than positive shocks of comparable magnitude. The study examines twenty of the largest banks worldwide selected based on their market capitalization and analyzes the dynamics of their realized and conditional volatility over the period 2020–2025. The results indicate that the EGARCH (1,1) model effectively captures the key characteristics of the volatility process, including volatility clustering and the persistence of risk, although it exhibits a tendency to smooth extreme observations. Overall, the findings suggest that the EGARCH (1,1) model constitutes a robust and reliable tool for analyzing and forecasting market volatility in the context of the global banking sector.