Economic Archive

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  VAR - Models of Shocks in the Business Cycles of Final Consumption Expenditure of Households

  Abstract: The article has experimented with a methodology for using vector autoregressive models (VAR) to study the impact of shocks in the business climate and economic activity on the business cycles of final con-sumption expenditure of households. It refers to six countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, ... Abstract: The article has experimented with a methodology for using vector autoregressive models (VAR) to study the impact of shocks in the business climate and economic activity on the business cycles of final con-sumption expenditure of households. It refers to six countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) for the period 2000 to 2015. The results show that the expectations for the financial situation of households over the next 12 months and the level of employment have a stimulating effect on the business cycle of final consumption expenditure of households. The expectations for unemployment, inflation and savings over the next 12 months have a negative impact on the business cycles.

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  A New Yuan or a New Monetary System

  The research area of the present study is the Chinese yuan (renminbi). The research subject is the evolution of the Chinese yuan from a national to a global reserve currency. The paper tests the proposition that the rise of the Chinese currency is a sign of deep and qualitative changes in the international monetary system. The aim of the study is ... The research area of the present study is the Chinese yuan (renminbi). The research subject is the evolution of the Chinese yuan from a national to a global reserve currency. The paper tests the proposition that the rise of the Chinese currency is a sign of deep and qualitative changes in the international monetary system. The aim of the study is to analyse and track the evolution in the current situation in the international monetary system, in order to highlight the factors and the reasons for the rise of the Chinese yuan and to find indications of the direction of the future development of the system as a whole.

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  Opportunities to Improve the Portfolio Performance Based on Dividend Strategies and Equity Home Bias

  The article examines the equity home bias puzzle and the "Dogs of the Dow" dividend strategy under conditions of the Bulgarian capital market. It was found out that local investors hold 74.1% of their portfolios in domestic stocks, although ICAPM suggests weight of 0.007%, and the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy generates annual risk-adjusted ... The article examines the equity home bias puzzle and the "Dogs of the Dow" dividend strategy under conditions of the Bulgarian capital market. It was found out that local investors hold 74.1% of their portfolios in domestic stocks, although ICAPM suggests weight of 0.007%, and the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy generates annual risk-adjusted hyper-profitability of 11.18%. Following the dividend strategy, combined with good international diversification provides good opportunities to improve portfolio performance.