FISCAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE CHANGE IN THE SOCIAL SECURITY MODEL FOR CIVIL SERVANTS IN BULGARIA
Authors
Keywords
civil servants, social insurance contributions, budget effect, public finance, distributional effects, SSI, NHIF, UPF
This study analyses the fiscal and distributional effects of the phased introduction of personal social insurance contributions for civil servants under the Civil Servants Act (CSA) and for employees under the Judiciary Act (JA). The main argument is that the regulatory change should not be assessed through the formal transfer of part of the social insurance contribution to the employee, but rather through the actual economic incidence and the net effect on the consolidated public sector. When net income is preserved through an increase in gross remuneration, a gross-up effect on wages arises, which limits the immediate fiscal savings and changes the distribution of flows among the state budget, the State Social Insurance system, the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), universal pensions funds (UPF), and households. Three scenarios are considered: no compensation; full compensation of net income; and com¬pensation within a constrained personnel budget. The analysis shows that the first scenario produces the clearest direct budgetary effect, but through a reduction in employees’ disposable income, whereas under full compensation the reform is primarily of an institutional and distributional character. Over the medium term, the fiscal outcome depends on the rules governing remuneration indexation, staff numbers, the maximum insurable income, and the manner in which the technical compensation is incorporated into the future wage base.
JEL: H24, H53, H55, H61Pages: 13
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