Economic Archive

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  EVALUATING MODELS FOR OIL PRICE FORECASTING

  The present study is aimed at forecasting oil prices through the application of several quantitative models—moving averages, trend projection, Monte Carlo simulations, and autoregressive models. The analysis covers the period from 12 May 2024 to 12 May 2025, using daily-frequency historical data on Brent crude oil prices. For the moving average ... The present study is aimed at forecasting oil prices through the application of several quantitative models—moving averages, trend projection, Monte Carlo simulations, and autoregressive models. The analysis covers the period from 12 May 2024 to 12 May 2025, using daily-frequency historical data on Brent crude oil prices. For the moving average model, the classical accuracy indicators—Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)—were calculated and compared. In the case of trend projection, the evaluation was carried out using standard error, relative standard error, and Absolute Percentage Error (APE). For the Monte Carlo simulations and autoregressive models, the emphasis was placed on the process parameters, forecasted values, and confidence intervals, without using the full set of classical error indicators. The obtained results show that moving averages with shorter periods provide lower error, whereas longer periods lead to smoothing but also to a loss of accuracy. Trend projection and Monte Carlo simulations complement the analysis with a broader scenario-based perspective, while autoregressive models demonstrate good predictive performance in short-term forecasting. This highlights the importance of a combined approach in modelling oil price dynamics and provides a basis for more reliable forecasts under conditions of market uncertainty.

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  DEVELOPING A RESEARCH FRAMEWORK FOR THE EFFICIENT AND SCALABLE DELIVERY OF TEMPORARY QUARTERS WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR COMMON-GOOD ECONOMIC FACTORS

  Temporary quarters (TQ) are structured, time-bound arrangements enabling rapid and legitimate crisis response. Beyond shelter, they support so-cial acceptance, transparency, and transitions toward stable long-term condi-tions. Displacement, climate pressure and infrastructure disruption require tools that connect speed, participation and ... Temporary quarters (TQ) are structured, time-bound arrangements enabling rapid and legitimate crisis response. Beyond shelter, they support so-cial acceptance, transparency, and transitions toward stable long-term condi-tions. Displacement, climate pressure and infrastructure disruption require tools that connect speed, participation and accountability. The framework integrates social cost–benefit analysis, social return metrics and multi-criteria evaluation, highlighting digital twins, design-for-disassembly and nature-based protection. The Thailand 2004 case illustrates how combined technical, institutional and ecological measures enhance welfare, equity and resilience while keeping governance transparent.

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  GEORGIA–EU TRADE RELATIONS: THE IMPACT OF THE DEEP AND COMPREHENSIVE FREE TRADE AREA ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

  This article examines the trade policy of the European Union within the framework of the Association Agreement, with a focus on the European Union's significant role in Georgia's economic integration. It highlights the establishment of a comprehensive free trade area, which has paved the way for Georgia to gradually align with three of the ... This article examines the trade policy of the European Union within the framework of the Association Agreement, with a focus on the European Union's significant role in Georgia's economic integration. It highlights the establishment of a comprehensive free trade area, which has paved the way for Georgia to gradually align with three of the European Union's four internal market freedoms: the free movement of goods, services, and capital. The author assesses the advantages and challenges of this agreement for Georgia, particularly in terms of trade liberalization and the harmonization of Georgia's trade-related legislation with European Union standards. The study also evaluates the trade protection mechanisms in the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, the criteria for implementing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures, and their potential impact on Georgia's economic development. The final section of the article underscores the World Trade Organi¬za-tion's pivotal role in Georgia's economic transformation, outlining the prere¬qui-sites for implementing trade safeguards and comparing the functions and fea-tures of the World Trade Organization with those of the Deep and Comprehen¬sive Free Trade Area Agreement. The author concludes that by fulfilling its obli¬gations under the Association Agreement, Georgia can enhance its attracti¬veness to foreign investors, foster state institutional engagement in the transformation process, and achieve successful navigation through this complex economic transition.