Economic Archive

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  Does the Introduction of the Euro Lead to High Inflation? Myth or Fact?

  The replacement of the local currency with the Euro has led to a number of discussions, commentaries and arguments, most of which refer to issues related to an increase of the common levels of the prices of goods and services. The subject of the research comprises the countries which adopted the common European currency after the year 2007. Cyprus ... The replacement of the local currency with the Euro has led to a number of discussions, commentaries and arguments, most of which refer to issues related to an increase of the common levels of the prices of goods and services. The subject of the research comprises the countries which adopted the common European currency after the year 2007. Cyprus and Malta are not discussed due to pages limit. The purpose of the article is to discuss the facts related to the myths about high inflation after the adoption of the Euro and to ascertain whether this myth is significant or whether it can be refuted. In order to accomplish this, we must first study the experience of the newly joined Member States when the common currency was introduced; then we analyze the inflation rates and the changes in the years following their admission to the eurozone. The thesis that is to be proven or rejected is that the adoption of the Euro does not have significant impact on the prices of goods and services in the country that adopts the new currency, whereas if inflation processes are observed, their rates coincide with those of the preceding years.

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  Modeling the Sources of Value in Banks and Valuation Through the Discounted Cash Flow Method

  We propose an upgrade, adaptation and implementation of a factor model of historical financial analysis, forecasting and valuation of the banking institution through the method of discounted cash flows based on publicly accessible data, which can be applied in the practice. We research the adequacy and plausibility of the approach, its benefits ... We propose an upgrade, adaptation and implementation of a factor model of historical financial analysis, forecasting and valuation of the banking institution through the method of discounted cash flows based on publicly accessible data, which can be applied in the practice. We research the adequacy and plausibility of the approach, its benefits and drawbacks, as we test it on Unicredit Bulbank Ltd, and we apply a comparative valuation app-roach and accounting reference values of control of the obtained results. The research objective is to upgrade and calibrate the model by introducing rest-rictive conditions for forecasting in compliance with the existing regulatory framework and the observations of the practice. For this purpose, we have also introduced a feasible parametrization and we have brought forth relevant recommendations for forecasting the activity of banking financial institutions.

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  Joining the Euro Zone – an Exploration of Real and Structural Convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia

  Twenty years after the creation of the Euro Zone, the monetary union remains the subject of both academic and political debate, often focusing on non-EZ Member States and their monetary integration aspirations (or lack thereof). In this context, one of the many hurdles in the way of Euro adoption lies in the incomplete character of the sine qua ... Twenty years after the creation of the Euro Zone, the monetary union remains the subject of both academic and political debate, often focusing on non-EZ Member States and their monetary integration aspirations (or lack thereof). In this context, one of the many hurdles in the way of Euro adoption lies in the incomplete character of the sine qua non conditions expressed in the Maastricht Treaty, which, although the only set of convergence conditions expressed in the European acquis, are univer¬sally deemed to be insufficient for successful EZ membership. Consequently, these nominal convergence conditions need to be doubled by less transparent real and structural convergence conditions. It is the objective of this paper to analyse some indicators pertaining to real and structural convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia by focusing on key aspects regarding (1) the capacity to catch up with EU’s PPS computed GDP per capita mean, (2) specialization, (3) business cycle synchronization and (4) current account structure. While recognizing that these four elements are not sufficient to ensure successful EZ membership, including them as inputs in the Euro adoption decision making process would have beneficial impact on its efficiency.