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Hristina Blagoycheva
Adjusting Unemployment Benefits to the Economic Cycle
Summary:
As a socio-economic phenomenon, unemployment is intrinsic to any market economy. Unemployment benefits provide incomes to individuals who have lost their jobs and the possibility of bearing the severity of risk collectively. The generosity of unemployment benefits may affect the incentives for searching and accepting a job, as well as the duration of unemployment. They could therefore act as an inbuilt economic stabiliser which is adjusted to a particular economic cycle. The article aims to identify potential pros and cons and examine the extent to which unemployment benefits in Europe and Bulgaria successfully act as inbuilt automatic stabilisers.
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Antonio Dichev
DISCRIMINATIVE ABILITY IN ESTIMATING PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT WITH CERTAIN MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS
Summary:
The article highlights the importance and added value of some machine learning algorithms in assessing default probability. The results of the research highlight the discriminative ability added to many other essential aspects of machine learning in assessing credit risk. These aspects can be identified as specific opportunities and challenges. As for the discriminative ability regarding the analysed sample, the results prove the superiority of machine learning over the traditionally established and known models. For individual business organizations with exposures to credit risk, machine learning could contribute to reducing the credit losses with larger volumes of business transactions.
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Teodor Todorov
INNOVATIVE METHODS TO MEASURE THE MARKET RISK OF THE FOREX MARKET
Summary:
The impact of market risk on the performance of economic agents is significant. The focus of this study is on the various models and techniques to quantify the market risk of the FOREX market. The results from the empirical testing of Monte Carlo simulation models, VaR, CVaR, MVaR, VaR historical simulation, and Delta Normal VaR indicate the presence of market risk in the Foreign exchange market. Of these models, the simulation model is the best measure of market risk. Historical simulation and Delta Normal VaR, on the other hand, help diversify risk by building investment portfolios.
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Danail Vrachovski
Multi-fund organization of supplementary pension
Summary:
The article is an attempt to study the major issues related to the multi-fund organisation of the pension insurance system in Chile as a social protection model. In a strategic and hypothetical aspect the article reviews, the advantages and disadvantages which may accompany the introduction of the multi-fund system in Bulgaria. The major conclusions regarding the pension model in Bulgaria are related to the opportunities ensuring funds for the supplementary pension insurance at the stages of accumulation and payment of pension benefits.
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Boyan Iliev
Multiple Peril Risk Insurance of Agricultural Crops – a Myth or Reality
Summary:
The insurance of agricultural crops is a conservative type of insurance. It is quite rarely that radical organizational changes are introduced. Currently, however, conditions dictate the introduction ofthere are the necessary conditions such changes in the Republic of Bulgaria. Modern development of agricultural production is a prerequisite for changing the methodology of this type of insurance so as to adapt it to the demands of agricultural producers. This article develops the thesis that a similar change might be implemented by transforming the liability of insurance companies from a liability related to certain risks and losses to a liability referring to any risks and losses. In other words, it is possible to make the transition to the so-called multiple peril risk insurance.
Multiple peril risk insurance is considered to be a novelty which has only recently been introduced in EU member-states with advanced economies. Therefore, it is the subject of large-scale discussions. The objective is to choose to introduce such an option that will best correspond to the specific features of the agricultural development and traditions in the Republic of Bulgaria and related insurance practice.
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P. Dimitrova
Some Aspects of the Accounting Analysis of Loans Granted
by Commercial Banks
Summary:
The accounting analysis performed in banking institutions is of key importance. It is based on information collected exclusively from current and periodic accounting reports. Based on real accounting data, it is found that there are decreased rates of positive growth in credit portfolios. Granted loans are well-secured while at the same time there is also an increase in the percentage of non-performing loans. When assessing the risk of collateral it is possible to propose the use of "above-the-moderate risk." It is considered necessary for banks to maintain information about the liquidation value of mortgages or pledged assets, rather than the market price.
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Todor Georgiev
RISK AND RETURN ON INVESTMENTS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANTS THROUGH A PROJECT COMPANY AND LOAN FINANCING
Summary:
Abstract: The aim of this study is to present in detail the risk, financial, and engineering aspects of investments in photovoltaic power plants (PVPPs) based on the most likely scenario for financial and economic development. For investments in PVPPs with a capacity of over 1 MW, the use of the project company approach can be recommended. This approach pursues two basic goals: (1) the construction of PVPPs with optimal installed capacity and product¬ion parameters; (2) achievement of a projected level of sales and profits. Investments in PVPPs logically bear two groups of risks – systematic and unsystematic. Among these risks, attention should always be paid to the dynamics of price levels in electricity markets, which are key to the financial and economic return on investment. These calculations are also particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates when loan financing a project company with high financial leverage.
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Nikola Iliev
Risk Attribution – a Model for Establishing the Impact
of Global Risk Factors
Summary:
The global recession that started in the twenty-first century forced investors to invent or re-discover a paradigm for risk treatment. The solution lies in the risk attribution of historical stock return of listed companies in relation to global macroeconomic factors, its decomposition and research in terms of risk exposure and risk premia. The consistency of this approach enables investors to act as risk managers and macro analysts of equity markets and to predict potential sources of risk for companies, the stock exchange, the economy, and the globalizing world.
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Stoyan Prodanov, Tsetan Pavlov
Comparative Analysis of the Leading Consumption-Based
Asset Pricing Models
Summary:
The article analyzes in depth the consumption-based asset pricing models, and displays most perspective contemporary trends in the field. A conceptual framework of models has been originally presented linking macroeconomic and financial relationships, and mathematical basis of the classic CCAPM has been developed. The paper also brings out the leading approaches for modification of the basic model, overcoming some of its shortcomings, and analyzes the advantages, disadvantages and the ability of consumption-based modern models to recreate empirical correlations in profitability and the risk of financial assets. The leading conclusion of the article is that there is still no convincing rational consensus model to reproduce adequately the characteristics of financial markets. From an econometric perspective, the closest in this endeavour is the model of long-term risk of Bansal and Yaron (2004) and its modifications.
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Desislava V. Petrovska
STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT
Summary:
The strategic management of commercial companies in times of crisis places a strong emphasis on the management and control of the risk. There is no business activity in the world that is not associated with various types of risk. In a highly competitive and turbulent environment, the clear linking of the business strategy of the firm and its risk management makes it possible to identify and manage the risk of the surrounding environment and the on-going movements within it. Strategic risk management creates a protection value that ensures a sustainable internal environment. This is a continuous process that is embedded in the strategy.
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Petko Angelov
Trends in the Development of Financial Parameters of Banks
in Bulgaria (2008 – 2015)
Summary:
Lending and deposit-taking are key operations to credit institutions. They are of great importance to achieving efficiency in banking. Banking, in turn, should be quantified; a number of factors well-known in banking theory and practice provide the possibility for this. In this respect, the subject of analysis in the study is the profit, profitability, and return of the banks of first and second group in Bulgaria which measure bank efficiency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the bank efficiency for the period 2008 – 2015 on the basis of a ratio analysis and determination of specific values for both groups of banks. As a result of the study, the trends regarding the efficiency of banking in Bulgaria are outlined and the main causes are identified.
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Ivailo Nikolaev Marinov
TRANS-BORDER EXPANSION IN THE QUICK LOANS SECTOR (PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS)
Summary:
The enterprises operating in the “quick loans” sector are microfinance institutions. Since they are not banking institutions, they need to adhere to more rigid financial management rules both in terms of fund raising and lending, especially regarding the so called “quick loans” category. The "quick loans" sector is defined as economic activity that, under the terms of the regulatory framework in force, allows a non-banking financial institution to provide unsecured (short-term) loans based on borrower’s income and credit profile and to charge high interest rates and added fees to offset the associated risk. The results of the survey confirm that this sector is a specific segment of the financial services sector that complies with the national regulations and creates a market for financial services that are essentially equivalent to the unsecured short-term bank loans but have profitability and return characteristics that make them competitive to the services offered by commercial banks. The successful of the financial management of these companies is based on their scoring models for assessing the risk of borrower’s default.
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G. Draganov
RISK MANAGEMENT AND RISK TRANSFER REGARDING OBJECTS
OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
Summary:
The aim of the author is to consider an issue which has not been subject to research so far. The article proves that risk management is an important element of the Intellectual Property system. Risk management helps reduce injuries arising from the materialisation of pure and speculative risks.
The article also pays special attention to risk transfer related to intel-lectual products. The article considers insurance transfer to be the most ac-ceptable and therefore the insurance of objects of intellectual property should be introduced into practice.
