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Kalina L. Durova
THE IMPACT OF ABSORBED EUROPEAN FUNDS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF BULGARIA AND NEW MEMBER STATES
Summary:
The aim of this research is to analyze the short- and long-term relationship between the absorbed European funds and the economic growth in the 11 new member states as a group, and in Bulgaria in particular, during the period 2014–2020. To achieve the aim of the research, we have adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results show that, as public investments, the absorbed European funds have an impact on the economic growth of the 11 new member states in the short, but not in the long term. The relationship between the economic growth and the rate of absorption of European funds in Bulgaria indicates a short-term positive, but not long-term impact of the absorbed European funds on the rate of growth of the real GDP of our country.
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Mariam Voskanyan, Hripsime Gabrielyan
MEASURING THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ARMENIA
Summary:
The key objective of macroeconomic regulation is to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in the long term. At the same time, within developing economies, the task of ensuring sustainable economic growth in the long term faces the failure of institutions, and as a result, the ineffectiveness of the main mechanisms of macroeconomic regulation, especially those that have a long-term and ambiguous impact on the economy. The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth, as well as to find fundamental common ground for increasing the impact of basic instruments on economic activity by improving transmission mechanisms.
The methodological basis of the study was a review of theoretical and practical models of the fiscal regulation impact on economic growth, known in the scientific literature, as well as approbation of the most optimal ones considered using the example of the Armenian economy. The result of the study was the conclusion that in the current format, the fiscal policy of Armenia does not have the proper positive impact on the rate of economic growth, and therefore requires a fundamental revision and the need to develop an appropriate strategy aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth in the long term.
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Milena Kovachevich
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROZONE AND ON THE BALKANS: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS
Summary:
The global financial and economic crisis of 2008 and in particular the ensuing debt crisis in the euro area in 2009 affected both the economic growth in the euro area and the economic growth in almost all Central and Eastern European countries, including, although to a lesser degree, the Balkan countries. This lower degree of interdependence between most of the Balkan economies and the Eurozone countries is exactly the reason for this study, which aims to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the economies of the Balkan countries and the Eurozone in general through a co-integration analysis.
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Victor Yotzov
CONVERGENT ECONOMY – A CRITICAL REVIEW OF BULGARIA’S INTEGRATION IN THE EU
Summary:
This article was written on the occasion of the presentation of the book Converging Economy by Prof. Garabed Minasyan, DSc, which was organized by the Union of Economists in Bulgaria with the courtesy of the Prof. Minko Rusenov, PhD Foundation. During the discussions, economists from various universities and scientific institutions presented their views on the role of economic convergence in the modern development of Bulgaria.
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Stoyan Prodanov, Stefan Stanimirov
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BULGARIAN INSURANCE MARKET - CRISIS CHALLENGES OF THE DECADE
Summary:
The present study focuses on the development of the Bulgarian insurance market in the second decade of the XX century. It examines the issues of the relationship between the global financial sector, insurance and the phases of economic cycles; the debate on the importance of the financial sector and insurance for the economic development; the establishment of correlations and dependencies between the dynamics of GDP and the dynamics of the Gross Premium Income (GPI) in the general insurance sector in Bulgaria for the period 2007-2019, presenting prospective reflections and assessment of the impact of the global pandemic COVID-19 on the Bulgarian insurance market. The linear model in a realistic scenario forecasts a decline in GPI of 18.2%, in a GDP decline of 9.0%. An additional assessment and forecast made using the model is that a decrease between 12.4% and 25% of GPI from the compulsory motor third party liability insurance (at the indicated level of GDP decline) will have a destructive effect on the Bulgarian model of general insurance, due to the impossibility to perform the social functions of this insurance such as the protection of victims of road accidents.
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Mariam Voskanyan
FUNDED PENSION SYSTEM
OF ARMENIA: PROBLEMS, DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS, ROLE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Summary:
The pension fund system, both in theory and in practice, solves many important problems from the point of view of the country's economic development. In particular, the social issue is being solved, in many respects it contributes to equalizing the incomes of the population, raising the level of the population of retirement age, and many other social and economic tasks. However, when it comes to developing markets, the funded pension system requires closer attention both from the side of supervision and from the point of view of the very mechanisms and principles for implementing the funded pension system in the country.
This study is devoted to the analysis of the funded pension system of the Republic of Armenia, in terms of the effectiveness of its investments and the impact on the country's economic growth.
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Shteryo Nozharov
HYBRID THREATS AS
AN EXOGENOUS ECONOMIC SHOCK
Summary:
The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed an econometric model based on a regression analysis. Another objective is to tackle the issue of hybrid threats, which have not yet been subjected to a cross-disciplinary research. These were reviewed in terms of their economic characteristics in order to complement research in the fields of defence and security.
