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Rumyana Lilova, Petko Angelov
The Budget Balance – Technical and Financial Aspects
Summary:
The paper focuses on issues related to the procedure for determining the different types of budget balance in compliance with the consolidated fiscal programme (CFP) and the national budget, and their economic interpretation. The paper also specifies that the numeric value which states the difference between the value of receipts and the value of outlays depends on the absolute sum of expenditure on interest payments on internal and external loans. The dynamics of the difference between the values of receipts and outlays under the CFP and under the national budget is analysed. We prove that the rate of change in the consolidated cash budget balance does not match the rate of change in the cash balance on the national budget. We also identify the relation between analysed balance variables and the reference values approved by the Maastricht Treaty and set in the Public Finance Act. An analysis is made of the effect which the rate of change in the nominal value of receipts and outlays exercises on the dynamics of analysed cash budget balances. Finally, we arrive at the conclusion that the value and the relative share of the budget balance in the GDP do not pose a threat to public finance stability.
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Yulian Hristov Voynov
MODEL AND RESULTS OF A STRESS TEST ON PUBLIC FINANCE – ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON WITH THE MODEL OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE
Summary:
The article presents a model for calculating the production gap to obtain the cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB), which is then used to conduct a stress test with the production gap values to track the reaction of CAB in terms of the Impulse-Response Function in EViews.
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Presiana Nenkova, Angel Angelov
ASSESSMENT OF THE FISCAL STANCES OF THE BALKAN STATES
Summary:
The research paper presents an assessment of key budgetary and socio-economic indicators to reveal the effects of the models of public finance management adopted by the countries on the Balkan Peninsula. Based on these indicators, the analysis determines the fiscal stance of each Balkan country before, during and after the global economic crisis. The results of the analysis show a significant degree of similarity in the discretionary measures taken, but at the same time some more pronounced deviations from the general economic development of the Balkans.
