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Radko Radkov, Andrey Zahariev
The Currency Board in Bulgaria: Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Results
Summary:
Via this article the authors would like to discuss the idea of the inter-section point of theoretical reflections and reported empirical results referring to the currency board in Bulgaria. To achieve the goal defined the article is structured in the following separate sections: first, clarification of the concept of a currency board in light of leading theoretical research; second, critical analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of the currency board in Bulgaria; third, justification of the authors’ answer regarding the end of the currency board in Bulgaria and its replacement with another system; fourth, econometric analysis and assessment of foreign trade sector influence on the GDP in Bulgaria under the conditions of a fixed currency exchange rate and a high percentage of foreign trade of goods and services in the structure of the GDP; fifth, a study of the currency boards influence on the economic convergence of Bulgaria in comparison with leading EU economies for the period 1998 – 2012. For the authors, Bulgaria’s path to membership in the Eurozone while keeping the currency board regime during the whole period of being in the ERM II “waiting room” is logical and has social and institutional support. The argument for this is that Estonia’s example of entering the Eurozone by preserving the currency rate at the level of the currency board is the reasonable and rational national project for developing Bulgaria’s economy and financial system.
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Daniel Nikolaev
THE IMPACT OF COMMERCIAL BANKS ON CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Summary:
The paper traces the impact of the international, systematically important banks on the state and phenomena observed in the European Union. It comes to the conclusion that international commercial banks further strengthen the convergence in the banking systems of the member states. In the process of disclosure of these relationships, the macroeconomic factors in the European Union have also been analyzed affecting the returns from the main activity of banking institutions aggregated across member states. By sequential use of the regression model and optimization, values representing the local specificities of the individual member-state towards the Union have been reached. Links have been found that suggest a time lag in the effects observed since the crisis in 2008. Both the international banks and the stock market status in the individual member states indicate that international systematically important banks function as a conductor of extreme cross-border phenomena.
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N. Kravchuk
Divergence and Convergence in Global Development
Summary:
From a conceptual point of view, this research is dedicated to one of the most disputed problems in the methodology of contemporary intersystem transformations – systematic balance ambiguity, or the “divergence – convergence of global development.” From a compositional point of view, research on this topic has consisted of two main directions: (1) an analysis of global development asymmetry that has activated gravitational processes in geoeconomic space; and (2) a direction that focuses on the profound study of the causes for heterogeneity in geo-economic space and divergence in global development under the influence of gravitational factors of nature on the endog-enous-exogenous axis. Empirical analyses have revealed systemic determinants of gravitational processes in geo-economic space, a geo-strategic matrix of divergence in global development has been constructed, and Ukrainian geo-strategic positions in geo-economic space regarding the projection of problems in global intersystem transformations have been outlined. The hypothesis that the level of gravitational charge grows under conditions involving the deepening of global development asymmetries has been proved.
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Victor Yotzov
CONVERGENT ECONOMY – A CRITICAL REVIEW OF BULGARIA’S INTEGRATION IN THE EU
Summary:
This article was written on the occasion of the presentation of the book Converging Economy by Prof. Garabed Minasyan, DSc, which was organized by the Union of Economists in Bulgaria with the courtesy of the Prof. Minko Rusenov, PhD Foundation. During the discussions, economists from various universities and scientific institutions presented their views on the role of economic convergence in the modern development of Bulgaria.
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Horatiu Dan
Joining the Euro Zone – an Exploration of Real and Structural Convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia
Summary:
Twenty years after the creation of the Euro Zone, the monetary union remains the subject of both academic and political debate, often focusing on non-EZ Member States and their monetary integration aspirations (or lack thereof). In this context, one of the many hurdles in the way of Euro adoption lies in the incomplete character of the sine qua non conditions expressed in the Maastricht Treaty, which, although the only set of convergence conditions expressed in the European acquis, are univer¬sally deemed to be insufficient for successful EZ membership. Consequently, these nominal convergence conditions need to be doubled by less transparent real and structural convergence conditions. It is the objective of this paper to analyse some indicators pertaining to real and structural convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia by focusing on key aspects regarding (1) the capacity to catch up with EU’s PPS computed GDP per capita mean, (2) specialization, (3) business cycle synchronization and (4) current account structure. While recognizing that these four elements are not sufficient to ensure successful EZ membership, including them as inputs in the Euro adoption decision making process would have beneficial impact on its efficiency.
