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Ivan Todorov, Alexander Alexandrov, Kalina L. Durova
FUTURE EURO AREA MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA IN TERMS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Summary:
In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria’s economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated to support the synchronization of Bulgaria’s economic cycle with the one of the EA and to prepare our country for the adoption of the euro.
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Radko Radkov, Andrey Zahariev
The Currency Board in Bulgaria: Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Results
Summary:
Via this article the authors would like to discuss the idea of the inter-section point of theoretical reflections and reported empirical results referring to the currency board in Bulgaria. To achieve the goal defined the article is structured in the following separate sections: first, clarification of the concept of a currency board in light of leading theoretical research; second, critical analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of the currency board in Bulgaria; third, justification of the authors’ answer regarding the end of the currency board in Bulgaria and its replacement with another system; fourth, econometric analysis and assessment of foreign trade sector influence on the GDP in Bulgaria under the conditions of a fixed currency exchange rate and a high percentage of foreign trade of goods and services in the structure of the GDP; fifth, a study of the currency boards influence on the economic convergence of Bulgaria in comparison with leading EU economies for the period 1998 – 2012. For the authors, Bulgaria’s path to membership in the Eurozone while keeping the currency board regime during the whole period of being in the ERM II “waiting room” is logical and has social and institutional support. The argument for this is that Estonia’s example of entering the Eurozone by preserving the currency rate at the level of the currency board is the reasonable and rational national project for developing Bulgaria’s economy and financial system.
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Yanko Hristozov
Does the Introduction of the Euro Lead to High Inflation? Myth or Fact?
Summary:
The replacement of the local currency with the Euro has led to a number of discussions, commentaries and arguments, most of which refer to issues related to an increase of the common levels of the prices of goods and services. The subject of the research comprises the countries which adopted the common European currency after the year 2007. Cyprus and Malta are not discussed due to pages limit. The purpose of the article is to discuss the facts related to the myths about high inflation after the adoption of the Euro and to ascertain whether this myth is significant or whether it can be refuted. In order to accomplish this, we must first study the experience of the newly joined Member States when the common currency was introduced; then we analyze the inflation rates and the changes in the years following their admission to the eurozone. The thesis that is to be proven or rejected is that the adoption of the Euro does not have significant impact on the prices of goods and services in the country that adopts the new currency, whereas if inflation processes are observed, their rates coincide with those of the preceding years.
