Economic Archive

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  INNOVATIVE METHODS TO MEASURE THE MARKET RISK OF THE FOREX MARKET

  The impact of market risk on the performance of economic agents is significant. The focus of this study is on the various models and techniques to quantify the market risk of the FOREX market. The results from the empirical testing of Monte Carlo simulation models, VaR, CVaR, MVaR, VaR historical simulation, and Delta Normal VaR indicate the ... The impact of market risk on the performance of economic agents is significant. The focus of this study is on the various models and techniques to quantify the market risk of the FOREX market. The results from the empirical testing of Monte Carlo simulation models, VaR, CVaR, MVaR, VaR historical simulation, and Delta Normal VaR indicate the presence of market risk in the Foreign exchange market. Of these models, the simulation model is the best measure of market risk. Historical simulation and Delta Normal VaR, on the other hand, help diversify risk by building investment portfolios.

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  FUTURE EURO AREA MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA IN TERMS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE

  In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria’s economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated ... In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria’s economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated to support the synchronization of Bulgaria’s economic cycle with the one of the EA and to prepare our country for the adoption of the euro.

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  THE IMPACT OF COMMERCIAL BANKS ON CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

  The paper traces the impact of the international, systematically important banks on the state and phenomena observed in the European Union. It comes to the conclusion that international commercial banks further strengthen the convergence in the banking systems of the member states. In the process of disclosure of these relationships, the ... The paper traces the impact of the international, systematically important banks on the state and phenomena observed in the European Union. It comes to the conclusion that international commercial banks further strengthen the convergence in the banking systems of the member states. In the process of disclosure of these relationships, the macroeconomic factors in the European Union have also been analyzed affecting the returns from the main activity of banking institutions aggregated across member states. By sequential use of the regression model and optimization, values representing the local specificities of the individual member-state towards the Union have been reached. Links have been found that suggest a time lag in the effects observed since the crisis in 2008. Both the international banks and the stock market status in the individual member states indicate that international systematically important banks function as a conductor of extreme cross-border phenomena.