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D. Radilov, G. Chervenski
VAR - Models of Shocks in the Business Cycles of Final Consumption Expenditure of Households
Summary:
Abstract: The article has experimented with a methodology for using vector autoregressive models (VAR) to study the impact of shocks in the business climate and economic activity on the business cycles of final con-sumption expenditure of households. It refers to six countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) for the period 2000 to 2015. The results show that the expectations for the financial situation of households over the next 12 months and the level of employment have a stimulating effect on the business cycle of final consumption expenditure of households. The expectations for unemployment, inflation and savings over the next 12 months have a negative impact on the business cycles.
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Alexander Alexandrov
THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND ITS CONTEMPORARY CHARACTERISTICS
Summary:
The article aims to present the business cycle phenomenon and its contemporary characteristics. Understanding the business cycle theory will allow for more in-depth research on this subject for the Bulgarian economy, through which to increase the macroeconomic efficiency of the country's economic policy.
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Ivan Todorov, Alexander Alexandrov, Kalina L. Durova
FUTURE EURO AREA MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA IN TERMS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Summary:
In the present paper, vector autoregression (VAR) is used to assess the extent to which Bulgaria’s economic cycle is synchronized with the one of the euro area (EA). The main fiscal and monetary factors affecting the coordination of the business cycles of Bulgaria and the EA are identified. Recommendations for macroeconomic policies are formulated to support the synchronization of Bulgaria’s economic cycle with the one of the EA and to prepare our country for the adoption of the euro.
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Veniamin Todorov
EXOGENOUS MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AS CONTEMPORARY BUSINESS CYCLE DETERMINANTS
Summary:
The article presents the results of a research that aims to test the hypothesis that exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect present-day business cycle dynamics in a way that extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. The analysis covers the present-day manifestation of three key types of exogenous shocks - health shocks, oil price shocks and natural disasters. The research showed a lot of evidence that corroborates the hypothesis and hence it is confirmed. The three types of exogenous shocks have played an important role not only for the last two years, but also beyond this time horizon.
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Shteryo Nozharov
HYBRID THREATS AS
AN EXOGENOUS ECONOMIC SHOCK
Summary:
The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed an econometric model based on a regression analysis. Another objective is to tackle the issue of hybrid threats, which have not yet been subjected to a cross-disciplinary research. These were reviewed in terms of their economic characteristics in order to complement research in the fields of defence and security.
