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Aglika Kaneva
ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGES IN GROSS LOANS AND ADVANCES AND DEPOSITS IN BANKS IN BULGARIA
Summary:
The article presents a trend model for the loans and advances and the deposits of banks in Bulgaria for the period 2007 – 2019. Assuming that the established trends will persist, the model was used to forecast the future values of the loans and advances and the deposits of these banks in 2020 and 2021.
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Lachezar Borisov
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD PRODUCTION PRICES AND INFLATION IN BULGARIA
Summary:
The study aims to find relationships between the total producer price index for food products and the harmonized consumer price index for food products in Bulgaria. The analysis of the relationships aims to reveal the impact of producer prices on the final consumer price of food products, as well as the period in which the strongest relationships are present. The sharp rise in food prices in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic forecasts for the continuation of this trend and their impact on the welfare of citizens make it necessary to analyse various interrelationships that serve the study and forecasting of certain processes in the country. The study concludes that there is a causal relationship between the total producer price index for food products and the harmonized consumer price index for food products in Bulgaria. In contrast to the general case where inflationary processes are transmitted from producer prices to consumer prices with a lag of 5 months, in the case of food products this happens within the same month.
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Dimcho Ivelinov Shopov
ANALYSING AND FORECASTING THE DEBT BURDEN OF THE EU COUNTRIES: IS THERE A NEW EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS ON THE HORIZON?
Summary:
The debt crisis which afflicted Europe highlights the weaknesses and instability of the EU member states' financial systems, as well as the inability of their national economies to maintain normal levels of indebtedness. The deteriorating economic environment requires changes in the fiscal policies across Europe. These changes are effected using new financial instruments to raise the necessary funds for implementation of economic reforms in the EU member states. The aim of this study is to analyse the current levels of sovereign debt across the European Union and to forecast their development in the future using specialized econometric software. The results may be used to identify possible future economic shocks in Europe.
