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V. Hadzhiev
Asymmetric Specialisation of Exports in a Liberal International Trade Environment
Summary:
Asymmetric specialisation in exports is a common feature of modern liberal trade. It is expressed by the fact that most countries export mainly raw materials and low-processed products and a small number of countries export highly processed products. The purpose of this article is to prove that asymmetric specialisation in exports did not change significantly during the operating period of the WTO by ap¬plying hierarchical cluster analysis.
The analysis found that, from 1995 to 2011, asymmetric specialisation in exports did not change substantially. It was concluded that, for both these specific years, a large group of countries fell into the first cluster (76% and 74% respectively of the total number of countries). The rest of them were evenly distributed in neighbouring clusters. It was also found that countries from the first cluster have mainly specialised in the export of raw materials and low-processed products. Based on the results, it can be concluded that asymmetric specialisation in exports is a chronic, long-term problem of liberal international trade.
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Anatoli Filipov Velkovski
PROOFS OF SEASONALITY OF BULGARIA’S EXPORT OF CONSUMER GOODS, RAW MATERIALS AND PROCESSED MATERIALS OVER
THE PERIOD 2020–2023
Summary:
A country’s balance of payments determines the degree of openness of its economy. In our case, it is the ratio of the debit and credit entries in the current account to GDP. Data regarding Bulgaria indicate that during the period of its full membership in the EU, the average annual ratio of its balance of trade to GDP exceeds 110%. This categorizes the country as an open-type economy. Simultaneously, an economy which is heavily reliant on both exports and imports is considered extremely susceptible to external shocks and strongly dependent on foreign markets. Accordingly, the study focuses on the export of two leading groups of goods within the current account of the balance of payments: the group of consumer goods and the group of raw and processed materials. The research aims to examine the dynamics of export flows using the method of seasonal projection. The working hypothesis is that due to the effect of various crises (such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, spiking energy prices, etc.) and the economic cycle in the agricultural sector, the dynamics of exports of consumer goods and raw and processed materials has seasonal characteristics. The objective is to analyse Bulgaria's exports for the period 2020–2023 on a quarterly basis and to define the trend component, the seasonal component, and the random component with a forecast for 2024.
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Vera Pirimova, Petar Ilkov Peshev
Comparative Advantages and Competitiveness of Bulgarian Exports
Summary:
The research analyses the comparative advantages and competitiveness of Bulgarian production and exports. The paper consists of two parts. Part one reviews some theoretical concepts about the nature of comparative advantages and interprets the indexes designed by B. Balassa and M. Amir. Part two provides computations of B. Balassa and M. Amir indexes and analyses obtained results to identify the comparative advantages and disadvantages of Bulgarian production and exports for certain commodities and commodity groups in the period from 2012 to 2016. Based on the findings of the analysis, we identify and summarise available opportunities for expanding or limiting the exports of certain commodity groups and raising the competitiveness of Bulgarian economy. The research employs mathematical and statistical methods, mainly the index method, in addition to the methods of analysis and synthesis.
